EARTHQUAKES

life_of_earth

Dunajewski Effect in the World:

Earthquakes are possible to predict, in my opinion.

FORECAST:

DATE	LAT	LON	MAG	Last Modified
y-m-d	deg	deg		y-m-d
Sequestration CO2	51,7	1,4	6,3 TSUNAMI ?	2006-09-14
	Region: New Madrid		7,8	2007-10-21
	Region: Boston		4,7	2007-10-21
	Region: Canada - Vancouver		8,3	2006-09-09
	Region: Tunisia		5,7 TSUNAMI !!!	2005-02-09
2013-10-31	Region: Indonesia		9,3	2007-01-04
2010-12-29				2007-12-17
2010-11-08				2007-12-17
2010-03-24				2007-12-17
2009-12-26				2007-12-27
2009-11-04				2007-12-17
2009-09-17				2007-12-28
2009-06-17				2007-12-17
2009-03-26				2007-12-28
2009-03-13				2007-12-28
2009-02-13				2007-12-28
2009-01-28				2007-12-17
2009-01-22				2007-12-28
2008-12-24				2007-12-17
2008-11-27				2007-12-21
2008-11-01	Region: JAPAN			2007-12-11
2008-09-10				2007-12-11
2008-09-04				2007-12-11
2008-08-02				2007-12-22
2008-06-08				2007-12-11
2008-04-23				2007-12-11
2008-04-12				2007-12-22
2008-04-10				2007-12-11
2008-03-09	-1,5	102	6	2007-03-24
2008-02-28				2007-12-11
2008-02-17 ?	48.5	7,4	6,8 ?	2007-12-23
2008-02-11	Region: TURKEY; CRETE, GREECE			2007-12-11
2008-01-31				2007-12-11
2008-01-03	Region: Indonesia		7,8 TSUNAMI ?!!!	2007-12-09
2007-12-21	Region: JAPAN; KURIL ISLANDS		8,2?	2007-12-09
2007-07-19	1,12	97,8	6,4	2007-03-24
2007-05-01	2,73		5,6	2007-03-24
2006-10-12			6,8	2005-02-09
2006-09-30	Region: Japan			2005-09-09
2006-09-07			7,1	2005-02-09
2006-08-07	Region: Japan			2005-09-09
2006-03-02	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2006-02-06	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2006-01-19			7,2	2005-02-09
2005-12-17	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-10-20	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-07-23	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-06-02	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-04-02	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-04-02	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09
2005-02-26	Region: Indonesia			2005-02-09

Copyright © 2002-2007 Margarita Dunajewska All rights reserved

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VERIFICATION

FORECAST: DATE LAT LON MAG Region

2005-02-26 2005-02-26 2,9 95,5 6,8 INDONESIA

2005-03-31 2005-03-28 2,1 97 8,7 INDONESIA

2005-04-02 2005-04-03 0,4 98,3 6 INDONESIA

2005-04-03 2 97,9 6,3 INDONESIA

2005-06-02 2005-06-03 1,5 97,1 5,8 INDONESIA

2005-07-23 2005-07-23 35,5 140 6,1 JAPAN

2005-07-24 7,9 92,1 7,3 INDIA REGION

2005-09-25 2005-09-26 -5,7 -76,4 7,5 PERU

2005-10-20 2005-10-19 36,3 140,9 6,5 JAPAN

2005-12-17 ?

2006-02-06 ?

2006-03-02 ?

FORECAST JAPAN 3

2006-08-07 Magnitude 6,2 ?

2006-09-30 Magnitude 6,8 ?

TUNISIA Magnitude 5,7 - TSUNAMI !!! ??

2006-01-19. Magnitude 7,2 19 JAN 2006 ??

DATE: 2008-02-17     Magnitude 6,8      17 FEB 2008 ???
LAT :     48,5
LON :    7,4
Region: France-Strasburg
Copyright © 2002-2005 Margarita Dunajewska All rights reserved

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Dr Jacek Dunajewski

THE ORIGIN OF EARTHQUAKES

ABSTRACT : The paper focuses on analysing correlations between movements of celestial bodies and the number of large earthquakes. The relationship between the amount of energy coming to the earth and the earth temperature is also studied. Earthquakes are believed to be related to wave migrations within the magma, such wage migrations reflect the attraction of celestial bodies on Earth. Several examples of such effects are listed and explained. The whole approach is based on mathematical modelling. The objective is to propose a method that would enable one to foresee future earthquakes as well as cyclical changes in temperature. The author has found that large earthquakes may be related to specific planet movements. An extensive study of the balance of energy for our planet has been performed.

I. Introduction

Earthquakes are one of the phenomena that are not yet well understood by mankind. Future quakes cannot be effectively predicted. Observations and attempts of earthquakes description, usually considering the most powerful earthquakes, are a very attractive subject especially for journalists. The magnitude of earthquake power is enormous and it has often been compared with the explosion of a nuclear bomb. Undoubtedly, this comparison may provide an idea of the destructive power of earthquakes. Eruptions of volcanoes are the next phenomenon that has not been well described so far. Earthquakes and eruptions will be discussed together in this article. They have the same origin. The Scientists that study these phenomena are usually geologists, geophysicists and so on. To explain the structure of our planet, they have moved from Neptunism (Fr neptunisme) which had been described by A.G. Werner to Plutonism (Fr plutonisme) described by J. Hutton, L. von Buch and A. von Humboldt. These controversies could be witnessed at the beginning of the creation of the science of volcanoes. The next intellectual step was the hypothesis of continental drifts (A. Wegener). A.Wegener made his hypothesis public in 1912.

Since that date, no new opinion about the Earth behaviour, during phenomena such as quakes, have been expressed. Obviously, many attempts to describe these processes have been made and, most of all, scientists try to predict future earthquakes.

II. Selected directions of research about earthquakes

The present technique of reckoning relies effectively on the analysis of experimental data and it attempts to predict the future. This treatment is based on the statistical study of experimental data. That approach to treating earthquakes is favoured by the team of scientists that is led by Prof. W. Keilis - Borok. They rely on the theory of chaos in their calculations.

The Swiss geophysicist Bernard Chouet presented another approach (he now works in the USA).Ground trembling of volcano may provide warnings from coming eruptions. The registration and the analysis of these tremblings allowed B. Chouet to foresee the eruption of Popocatepetl (a volcano in Mexico).

A similar approach to these phenomena is advocated by Didier Sornette - professor of geophysics at California University, Los Angeles. Prof. Sornette also relies on measuring the behaviour of the studied object in his method. The studied object gives specific signals according to Prof. Sornette. The analysis of these signals is expected to enable one to foresee the future. At present Prof. Sornette studies the famous San Andreas fault in South California. Earthquakes are registered by many seismic stations located all over the world. Unfortunately, these stations only cover present quakes. Therefore, these data, when they are available, do not enable one to model the future.

III. Mathematical modelling of earthquakes

We decided to describe these phenomena first of all by studying the balance of energy in these processes. The first problem that we decided to address was the area of balance. Earthquakes show their effects in selected places of our planet. However these places are plentiful. We decided to conduct a study of the balances of energy for the whole planet (Earth). Then it has been necessary to set the limits of this balance. First of all, we assumed (like von Humboldt) that Earth is a liquid substance limited by the outside mantle of the Earth. We are interested in the behaviour of this mantle. The upper limits are the Moon and the Sun. Unfortunately many attempts of balancing reciprocal interactions have not provided satisfactory analytical results. We noticed that our calculating problems were analogical to the problems which we meet at modelling the Moon's influences on the frequency of sea waves. From these calculations, we initiated to study the balancing area of the planets of our Solar System. However balancing of the Solar System still didn't give effective results. We have performed many analyses using balancing equations. In particularly we have thoroughly analysed the equations of constraints and boundary-initial conditions. Numerous tests of modifications led us to a corollary hypothesis that the problem probably applies to the traditional equation describing reciprocal interactions between two bodies. This dependency has been known from Newton's time. In the classical presentation, two bodies with mass m1 and m2 are reciprocally attracted with a power which is proportional to the product of masses m1 and m2 and inversely proportional to the second power mutual distance between these masses. This may be represented by the formula:

F = G*(m1*m2)/R²

This law of interaction between two bodies is sufficient to describe the power between these bodies only in stable cases. When bodies are in motion in central (potential) fields the description of the two bodies’ interaction becomes more complicated. Analyzing the running time and the positions of the celestial bodies with respect to the Earth and to particular bodies that are part of the Solar System, we observed some unknown regularity. Having collected the dates of large earthquakes during many hundred of years, we have analyzed the time and place of large earthquakes and the positions of the particular planets. The planet positions of the Solar System may be related to concrete earthquakes. We have examined the dates of major eruptions, we have come to the conclusion that planets do have an influence on this type of phenomena. After many analyses of dates and places of earthquakes, we have made the following assumptions :

1. Earth is a fluid mass. We do not analyse changes of the liquid mass density.

2. This liquid mass is covered by a constant crust. We do not analyse the movement of the continental plates.

3. Two forces affect the Earth. The first force is the classical gravity force. The second one is the force created during the mutual movement of bodies moving in the potential field. The value of this component of forces is dependent on their mutual speed.

4. Wave migration of the liquid mass (magma) reflect the planets action on Earth. There are waves of substance which should not be confused with seismic waves.

These accepted assumptions led us to look for explanations regarding the times and places of the majority of the large earthquakes and eruptions.

IV. Planets have an effect on earthquakes

Figure 1 presents the number of large earthquakes from 2003 to the beginning of 2004 (magnitude 4 or larger). There is the sum in the interval of time - seven days. The distinct increase in the number of earthquakes in August and September is clearly noticeable. The basic line of this diagram has its top on the August and September fracture. Mars affects the Earth. Particular peaks (maximum) on this diagram are the effects of dynamic forces from other bodies moving around in the Solar System.

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Figure 1 : Number of large earthquakes from 2003 up to the beginning of 2004

The analysis of these types of diagrams show that planets have a direct effect on large earthquakes. On the other hand the Moon is responsible for additional earthquakes with magnitude below 4. The most interesting observation is the precise identification of the moment when a planet “effect” occurs. Planets show their dynamic interaction when they are the furthest from Earth and before they turn back to Earth. For this reason we can explicitly predict the time of the planets’ main “effect” on Earth. Planets “pull” waves to themselves. These waves are deflected from obstacles and they create side-waves. The main wave runs at the same time according to its typical trajectory. Just like in a water reservoir they form reflected, secondary and other waves that are derivatives from the main waves.

The analysis of waves made by particular objects led us to establish that planets usually “pull” waves on the trajectory approached to Earth parallels. The Moon usually “pulls” waves on the trajectory similar to Earth meridians. Additionally, the Moon makes breeding of waves. In many cases we noticed that the Moon “catches” a part of the substance from the main wave and usually “transfers” it nearby the equator.

Energy balances show another interesting dependency. Earthquakes are often associated with cold periods. In the XXth century coldness was felt during intense earthquakes. We can notice that on the diagram showing earthquakes with power over 7 in the Richter’s scale. Most of the earthquakes happened in 40-ties years of the XXth century. There was a cold period (1946-1975). In 1910-1945 and 1976-2004 there have been warm periods. During this period, the decrease in the number of earthquakes is noticeable. Particular planets tend to “privilege” specific areas of the Earth. Just in September 2003 after a very hot summer in Italy we wrote that the 2004 summer would be colder in Italy. We could infer that from the analysis of the energy balance for this area. This area is under the powerful influence of Mars. Another planet affects the area where the USA are located. In particular, this can be seen when we analyse the constant component and its interaction to Earth. Measurements covering many years show an erection of the area in the Yellowstone Park (of about 1 meter in the XXth century). This is the effect of the action of one of the planets. In 1812 that planet caused an earthquake in New Madrid, operating on this area by dynamic components which followed from motion of bodies in the potential field.

V. Amount of energy coming to Earth

By balancing the amount of energy coming to the Earth, we can provide forecasts of temperature for many years in this area.

Figure 3 below shows temperature forecasts for precise areas.

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Figure 2 : Number of earthquakes per year (magnitude 7 or larger)

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Figure 3 : Variations of temperature and forecasts / ºC/

Analysing the time of earthquakes in the past and the associated weather conditions, we realized that we should increase the balance field for a more precise study of this correlation. During a long time (million of years) our galaxy has been a field of balance. Figure 4 below showing the time of glaciation and warm periods on Earth illustrates this.

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Figure 4 : Time of glaciation and warm periods on Earth

VI. Future impact on events

We can also foresee earthquakes of low energy. Crumps of ground in underground mining have the same causes. For example, in February and March 2003 the wave of earthquakes caused by Jupiter in Europe (France) reached China and then showed itself again in Europe causing mining accidents. Waves from different planets may interact with one another. Wave interferences may appear and a larger amount of energy may be liberated. This kind of situation was witnessed in 1964 in Anchorage (Alaska). …

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On the Nature of Earthquakes, The Dunajewski Effect

Dunajewski Effect in the World:

Date		Region	Planet
JD-1126426 in my opinion	BC 1629-12-27	Santoryn (Thera)	Venus
JD-2362365	1755-11-01	Lisbon / Portugal	Venus
JD-2382863	1811-12-16	New Madrid / USA	Saturn
JD-2438483	1964-03-28	Alaska	Moon,
JD-2453336	2004-12-26	Sumatra	Moon,